Monday, May 18, 2020

West bracket: 1973 Giants defeat 2019 Angels in seven games

Game One: Angels 4, Giants 1
WP: Suarez (1-0)
LP: Bryant (0-1)
Save: Robles (1)
HR: J Upton (1)

Game Two: Giants 6, Angels 5
WP: McMahon (1-0)
LP: Suarez (1-1)
HR: McCovey (1), Speier (1), Fletcher (1), La Stella 2 (2), Kingman (1)

Game Three: Giants 3, Angels 2
WP: Bradley (1-0)
LP: Canning (0-1)
Save: Sosa (1)
HR: Fletcher (2)

Game Four: Angels 5, Giants 4
WP: Bedrosian (1-0)
LP: Barr (0-1)
HR: J Upton (2), Goodwin (1)

Game Five: Angels 4, Giants 2
WP: Heaney (1-0)
LP: Bryant (0-2)
Save: Robles (2)
HR: Calhoun 2 (2), Bonds (1), Maddox (1)

Game Six: Giants 6, Angels 1
WP: Marichal (1-0)
LP: Barria (0-1)
HR: Fuentes (1)

Game Seven: Giants 5, Angels 0
WP: Bradley (1-0)
LP: Pena (0-1)
HR: Matthews (1), Rader (1)

It was a tough series, but the team with four workhorse starters prevailed in the end over the team that relied on openers and bullpen games -- and did so ultimately with a truly dominant performance.

The Angels won the opener in Candlestick Park. Tyler Skaggs and Ron Bryant matched goose eggs for five innings, then Skaggs gave way to the bullpen. The Angels broke through for a pair of runs in the sixth inning. Kevan Smith had a pair of RBI doubles for the visitors, and the Giants mustered just two hits for the game off four Angels pitchers.

Chris Speier led off the bottom of the ninth of Game Two with a homer off Jose Suarez to even the series at a game apiece.  Willie McCovey hit a three-run homer in the third inning off Trevor Cahill to give the Giants a 3-0 lead, but the Angels fought back with a two-run homer from David Fletcher and a pair of solo shots by Tommy La Stella to take a 5-4 lead after six innings. Dave Kingman tied it in the seventh with pinch-hit homer, setting the stage for Speier's heroics.

The series moved to Anaheim for the next three games. Tom Bradley outlasted Griffin Canning (seven innings, two runs allowed for Bradley, five innings, one run for Canning) in Game Three. Garry Maddox went 4-for-5 from the Giants, and catcher Dave Rader had a pivotal RBI double in the seventh.

Brian Goodwin had a walk-off homer for the Angels in Game Four to even the series again. Jim Barr went the distance for the Giants, with two of the Angels five runs unearned. The Giants got all four of their runs in the first two innings off opener Felix Pena and Cahill, but Cahill delivered four scoreless innings after getting out of the second and Ty Buttrey, Suarez and Cam Bedrosian split up the final three innings as the Angels clawed back.

The Angels got their best start of the series in Gam Five, with Andrew Heaney allowing two runs on six hits in eight inning -- a pair of solo homers by Maddoz and Bobby Bonds. Kohl Calhoun homered twice off Bryant and drove in three runs.

The Giants returned to San Francisco needing a sweep. The Angels, out of eligible true starters, went with Noe Ramirez as an opener in Game Six. He threw a scoreless first, and Suarez followed with scoreless second, but Jamie Barria, called upon to give them bulk innings in the middle, allowed four runs on nine hits in three innings. Fuentes hit a two-run homer in the seventh to open it up. Juan Marichal took a shutout into the eighth, and Randy Moffit and Elias Sosa wrapped up it.

Tom Bradley delivered the clinching performance with a no-hitter in Game Seven, walking five with six strikeouts. Three of the walks were to Mike Trout, who missed one game with an injury and had just three hits in the entire series. Ramirez opened again, this time with two scoreless innings, and bulk-innings man Pena took the loss. Gary Matthews homered in the fourth, and Rader hit a three-run homerin the eighth.

Player availability: The Giants bullpen is well rested for the second round. They have no injury issues.

Projected rotation: Bryant-Barr-Bradley-Marichal-(Bryant)-(Barr)-(Bradley)

Friday, May 15, 2020

Stat break: 1973 Cincinnati Reds

Hitters


Name                AB     R   H   RBI   2B  3B   HR   BB   SB   Avg,

Bench               25      4     6     5       1    0      2      4      0     .240

Cheney               3      0     0     0       0    0      0      1      0     .000

Concepcion      22      2     5     1       1    0      0      2      2      .227

Driessen           18      0     7     3       2    0      0      1      0      .389

Geronimo         20       2     4     2       1    1      0      0      0     .200

Griffey Sr            9       0     4     2       0     0     0      0      0     .444

Kosco                 5       2     2      1     1    0      1      0       0     .400

Menke                5       2     2     0      0     0     0      1      0      .400

Morgan             22       2     7     3      2     1     1     6      3      .318

T Perez            22       2    4     3       0    0      0      4       0     .182

Rose                23       5   10     3      2    1      0      3       0     .435

Stahl                  0       1     0     0       0    0      0      0      0       ---

Tolan                21      2     4      3      1    1      0      0       1      .190



Pitchers

Name                G    GS   IP        H    R    ER   BB    K     Sv.     W    L     ERA

Baney              1      0      2          0     0      0      0      3       0       0     0       0.00

Billingham       2      2    12.6      11     6       4      5    13       0      0     0      2.84

Borbon             3      0      4          2     0      0      1      3       2      0     0      0.00

Carroll              2      0      2.3        1    2      2      1      2       0      1    0       7.73

Grimsley          2      2     12          8     1      1      1      4      0      2     0      0.75

Gullett              1      1       6          2     2      2      1      3      0      0     1      3.00

Hall                   2      0     4           1    2       1      1      4       0      0    1       2.25

McGlothlin       1      0      2          2      2      2      0      2       0     0     0       9.00

Norman            1     1      7           5     1      1      2      9       0      1     0      1.29



Stat break: 2019 Toronto Blue Jays

Hitters


Name                AB     R   H   RBI   2B  3B   HR   BB   SB   Avg,

Bichette            20       1    3     3       2    0      0      1      0      .150

Biggio               13       4    2     1       1    0      0      1      0      .154

Drury                10       0    1     0       0    0      0      0      0      .100

Galvis               14       1    1     0       0    0      0      1      0      .072

Grichuk             23      1     4     3       0    0      1      0      0      .174

Guerrero Jr       23      0     8     4       3     0     0      1      0      .348

L Gurriel            24     4      6    3       2      0    2      1      0      .250

T Hernandez     20      1     2    0       0     0     0      2      0      .100

Jansen              12      4     4    3       0     0      2      2      1     .333

Maile                   4      0     0    0       0     0     0      0      0      .000

McKinney            1      0     0     0       0     0    0       0      0      .000

Smoak              14      0     1     0       1    0      0      1       0     .072

Tellez                  6      0     2     0       2    0      0      0       0     .333



Pitchers

Name                G    GS   IP        H    R    ER   BB    K     Sv.     W    L     ERA

Boshers            3      0      3         4     3      3      2      3       0      0     1       9.00

Chirinos            1      0      5         5     2      2      0      3       0      0    0        3.60

Font                  1     1       4.3      5     2      2      5      4       0      0.    1       4.16

Gaviglio            1     0       1         6     6      6      0      1       0      0     0     54.00

Giles                 2      0      2        2     0      0      2      3       2      0     0        0.00

Law                  2      0      1.3      3     1      1     3       2       0      0     0        6.77

Mayza               2      0      2.3     1     0      0      1      0       0      0     0        0.00

Pannone           1      0      3.3      3     0      0      0      2       0      1     0       0.00

Reid-Foley       3      0       3.3       1     0      0     1      1       0     0      0       0.00

Richard             1      1      3.6      7      5      3      3     0       0      0     0       7.36

Shafer              2      0       1.6      1     1      1      0      2       0      0     0       5.39

Stroman           2      2     11.3    13     5      3      2      6       0     0      1       2.38

Thornton          1      1       6.3      9     4      4     1      5       0     0      1       5.69

Waguespack    1      1       7         2     1      1     2      4       0     1      0       1.29


Great Lakes bracket: 1973 Reds defeat 2019 Blue Jays in six games

Game One: Reds 4, Blue Jays 2
WP: Carroll (1-0)
LP: Boshers (0-1)
Save: Borbon (1)
HR: Bench (1)

Game Two: Reds 9, Blue Jays 3
WP: Grimsley (1-0)
LP: Font (0-1)
HR: Grichuk (1), L Gurriel (1), Morgan (1), Bench (2)

Game Three: Reds 5, Blue Jays 1
WP: Norman (1-0)
LP: Thornton (0-1)
HR: L Gurriel (2)

Game Four: Blue Jays 2, Reds 1
WP: Waguspack (1-0)
LP: Gullett (0-1)
Save: Giles (1)
HR: Jansen (1)

Game Five: Blue Jays 6, Reds 5
WP: Pannone (1-0)
LP: Hall (0-1)
Save: Giles (2)
HR: Perez (1), Kosco (1)

Game Six: Reds 3, Blue Jays 2
WP: Grimsley (2-0)
LP: Stroman (0-1)
Save: Borbon (2)
HR: Jansen (2)

Toronto's bloodline-laden lineup matched the Big Red Machine in long balls but couldn't match Cincinnati's starting pitchers.

Game One, played out in Riverfront Stadium, came down to the bullpens.  The visitors dinged Jack Billingham for solo runs in the first and third innings. Cincinnati loaded the bases against Marcus Stroman in the sixth with one out, and Dan Driessen singled into runs off Buddy Boshers to tie it at 2. Boshers left in the eighth after allowing a leadoff hit to Joe Morgan, and Johnny Bench greeted Justin Shafer with a two-run homer. Clay Carroll got the last out of the top of the eighth and was credited with the win.

Morgan and Bench hit back-to-back homers in a five-run seventh in Game Two's rout. Ross Grimsley allowed one run on four hits in six innings for the win. Pete Rose singled, doubled, walked twice, scored a run and drove in a pair, and Morgan also had two hits, two walks, a steal, a run and two RBIs.

The Reds made it three straight in 2019's Rogers Centre behind Fred Norman's seven innings of five-hit ball. Bobby Tolan tripled and doubled for two RBIs and a run. Rose had three more hits, one a triple, and scored twice.

The Jays avoided the sweep in Game Four. Jacob Waguespack allowed one run and two hits in seven innings, and Tim Mayza and Ken Giles each worked a scoreless frame. Danny Jansen homered off loser Don Gullett, and Randall Grichuk singled in Toronto's winning run.

The Jays followed with another win, even though Tony Perez and Andy Kosco hit consecutive homers as the Reds peppered Clayton Richard for five runs in 3.1 innings. The Jays scored the next six runs, three of them unearned, and Thomas Pannone worked 3.3 scoreless innings of relief for the win.

The Reds wrapped up the series at home in Game Six, with Grimsley turning in six innings of shutout ball. Carroll, handed a 3-0 lead in the seventh, promptly gave up a two-run homer to Jansen, but he threw a scoreless eighth, and Pedro Borbon allowed only a walk in the ninth to close out the game and the series. Two of Cincinnait's runs were unearned.

Player availability: Cincinnati has no injuries and a fresh bullpen for the second round

Projected rotation: Billingham-Norman-Gullett-Grimsley-(Billingham)-(Norman)-(Gullett).




Monday, May 11, 2020

Revisiting the Pasqual Perez rule

Two recent series -- one involving the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays, the other the 2009 Seattle Mariners -- caused me to review the spirit of what I call the Pasqual Perez rule.

That rule, named for the pitcher who dominated the National League for 10 starts and 70 innings in 1987, says that in these tournaments a pitcher must have at least 100 innings on his card to make more than one start in a series.

The purpose was to prevent somebody like Perez, who was literally a fraction of a rotation spot during the real life season, from dominating a series or even the tournament. And it has done that.

Come now to the current era of baseball, and 100 innings is suddenly a bit unwieldy.

The pitcher who made the second-most starts for Tampa Bay in 2019 was Ryne Stanek, who isn't a "starting pitcher" in the sense that we generally use the term. Stanek is, or was, an "opener." He is credited with 27 starts less than a full season for the Rays, plus 14 relief appearances -- and a total of 55.6 innings before the Rays traded him across the state to Miami.

I didn't use Stanek as an opener in the Rays first series, but I did deploy Colin Poche in that role. The lefty pitched the first inning of Game Four, surrendered a solo homer, and gave way to Yonny Chirinos. Poche wasn't used in real life as an opener, and unlike Stanek his card doesn't have a starter's rating; I simply assigned him a weakness rating of 1 (matching his relief rating).

Poche worked just the one inning in his start. In the decisive Game Seven of the next series, I deployed Mark Lowe of the 2009 Mariners as a opener. The Mariners have just one starter eligible for multiple starts, so I was scraping the barrel for a sixth starter for the series. I bypassed some pitchers with starter ratings for Lowe, who like Posche is listed strictly as a reliever. My plan: Lowe gets the first inning, and if he gives up any runs he's done. A scoreless first, and I will use him until he gives up a baserunner. As it turned out, Lowe followed a scoreless first with two 1-2-3 innings. It wasn't until the fourth inning, with Lowe already automatically fatigued, that a man reached base again (on an error), and I pulled Lowe immediately -- and the Mariners wound up with a 1-0 win on a five-pitcher shutout. (In retrospect, given the automatic fatigue rule, I should have pulled Lowe after the third inning.)

So, the Ryne Stanek Corollary to the Pascual Perez Rule: A pitcher coded as an opener -- that is, with a starter weakness rating of 1 -- is eligible to make multiple starts in a series, but he is subject to the useage limitations. He can't, for example, relieve in Games Three and Four, then open Game Five. But he can open Game Three, sit for Game Four, and open Game Five, assuming he didn't pitch more than two innings in Game Three.

A pitcher such as Lowe or Poche, not coded to start, may not make multiple starts in a series. (Lowe, having pitched three innings in Game Seven, is to be held out of Games One and Two of the second round.)

Bottom line: a pitcher such as Stanek may open as frequently as he can be used as a reliever. That. I think, abides by the spirit of the Pasqual Perez rule while accommodating a signature strategy of the analytics era -- and, perhaps, eases the issues of managing teams with few or even no pitchers who qualify for multiple starts. (Hello, there, 2019 Angels.)

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Stat break: 1973 California Angels

Hitters


Name                AB     R   H   RBI   2B  3B   HR   BB   SB   Avg,
Alomar              25       1    7     1       2    0      0      1      0     .280
Berry                 21      2     7     2       0    0      0      2      0     .333
Epstein             22       1    4     0       0    0      0      3      0      .182
Gallagher           8       2     2     0       1    0      0     0      0      .250
Llenas                4       0     0     0       0    0      0      0      0      .000
McCraw             3        0    0     0       0     0     0      0      0      .000
Meoli                17       0     1      0     0    0      0      1       0      .059
B Oliver            21       2     5     3      1     0     1     2      0      .238
Pinson             28       2     8     5       1     1     0     2      0      .286
F Robinson      27       1     3     3       3     0     0     2      0      .111
Scheinblum     15       4    8      1       2    0      0      3       0     .533
Stanton            12       0    1     0       0    0      0      0       0      .083
Stephenson     15       0    2     0       0    0      0      0       0     .133
Torborg            10      2     3     2       0    1      0      0      0      .300
Valentine           8       0    0     0       0     0      0      0      0      .000


Pitchers

Name                G    GS   IP        H    R    ER   BB    K     Sv.     W    L     ERA
Lange              1      0      2.3        3     1      0      2      0       0     0     0       0.00
R May             3      0       7.2       5     5      5      4      4       0      0     1       5.87
Monteagudo    2      0      1.2       2     1      0       0      1       0      0     0      0.00
Ryan                3      3    28        14     7      7    16     33       0      2    1      2.25
Sells                1      0       1          1     0      0      0      0       1      0     0      0.00
Singer              2      2    17        11     6      3      6    10       0      1     1       1.59
Wright              1     1       6.6       8     5      5      0      3       0      0     1       6.75


Stat break: 2009 Seattle Mariners

Hitters


Name                AB     R   H   RBI   2B  3B   HR   BB   SB   Avg,
Balentien           24       0    4     1       1    0      0      1      0     .167
Beltre                16       3    5     3       2    0      1      2      2     .313
Branyan            23      0     2     3       2    0      0      3      0      .087
R Cedeno           1      1     0     0       0    0      0      1      0      .000
Griffey Jr           21      2     3     1       0    1      0      1      0      .143
F Gutierrez       29       5     6     4       3     0     1      3      1      .207
Hannahan           4      1     2     1       1    0      0      2      0      .500
Johjima             12      1     3     1       0     0     0      3      0      .250
R Johnson          9       0    0     0       0    0      1      0       0     .000
J Lopez            24      3     4     3       1    0      0      2       0      .167
Suzuki              29      4     9     5       1    0      1      2       2     .310
Sweeney            7      1     1     1       0    0      1      1      0      .143
Jk Wilson         22      4      5    0       1     0      0     3      0      .227


Pitchers

Name                      G    GS   IP        H    R    ER   BB    K     Sv.     W    L     ERA
Aardsma                 4     0      4           5     1      1      2      2       1      0     0      2.25
Batista                    2     0       3          0     0      0      1      2       0      1.    0       0.00
Bedard                   1     1       5.6       3     2      0      1      2       0      0     1       0.00
Fister                      1     1       7.6       5     1      1      1      5       0      1     0       1.17
F Hernandez          2      2     13       12     6      4      3    11       0      1     0       3.00
Jabubauskas          2     0       3.3      3     0      0      0      1       0      0      0       0.00
M Lowe                   4      1      4.6      3     1      1      2      4       0      0      0       1.93
Morrow                   1     0       2          0     0      0      0      1       0      0      0       0.00
Rowland-Smith      1     1        7         7     3      2      0      0       0      0     1       2.57
Snell                      1     1        5          5     2      2      5       1       0      1     0       3.60
J Vargas                 4      0       5         8     2      2      0      2       0      0     1        3.60
White                     2      0       2.3      0      0      0      0      1      0      0      0        0.00