Monday, May 11, 2020

Revisiting the Pasqual Perez rule

Two recent series -- one involving the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays, the other the 2009 Seattle Mariners -- caused me to review the spirit of what I call the Pasqual Perez rule.

That rule, named for the pitcher who dominated the National League for 10 starts and 70 innings in 1987, says that in these tournaments a pitcher must have at least 100 innings on his card to make more than one start in a series.

The purpose was to prevent somebody like Perez, who was literally a fraction of a rotation spot during the real life season, from dominating a series or even the tournament. And it has done that.

Come now to the current era of baseball, and 100 innings is suddenly a bit unwieldy.

The pitcher who made the second-most starts for Tampa Bay in 2019 was Ryne Stanek, who isn't a "starting pitcher" in the sense that we generally use the term. Stanek is, or was, an "opener." He is credited with 27 starts less than a full season for the Rays, plus 14 relief appearances -- and a total of 55.6 innings before the Rays traded him across the state to Miami.

I didn't use Stanek as an opener in the Rays first series, but I did deploy Colin Poche in that role. The lefty pitched the first inning of Game Four, surrendered a solo homer, and gave way to Yonny Chirinos. Poche wasn't used in real life as an opener, and unlike Stanek his card doesn't have a starter's rating; I simply assigned him a weakness rating of 1 (matching his relief rating).

Poche worked just the one inning in his start. In the decisive Game Seven of the next series, I deployed Mark Lowe of the 2009 Mariners as a opener. The Mariners have just one starter eligible for multiple starts, so I was scraping the barrel for a sixth starter for the series. I bypassed some pitchers with starter ratings for Lowe, who like Posche is listed strictly as a reliever. My plan: Lowe gets the first inning, and if he gives up any runs he's done. A scoreless first, and I will use him until he gives up a baserunner. As it turned out, Lowe followed a scoreless first with two 1-2-3 innings. It wasn't until the fourth inning, with Lowe already automatically fatigued, that a man reached base again (on an error), and I pulled Lowe immediately -- and the Mariners wound up with a 1-0 win on a five-pitcher shutout. (In retrospect, given the automatic fatigue rule, I should have pulled Lowe after the third inning.)

So, the Ryne Stanek Corollary to the Pascual Perez Rule: A pitcher coded as an opener -- that is, with a starter weakness rating of 1 -- is eligible to make multiple starts in a series, but he is subject to the useage limitations. He can't, for example, relieve in Games Three and Four, then open Game Five. But he can open Game Three, sit for Game Four, and open Game Five, assuming he didn't pitch more than two innings in Game Three.

A pitcher such as Lowe or Poche, not coded to start, may not make multiple starts in a series. (Lowe, having pitched three innings in Game Seven, is to be held out of Games One and Two of the second round.)

Bottom line: a pitcher such as Stanek may open as frequently as he can be used as a reliever. That. I think, abides by the spirit of the Pasqual Perez rule while accommodating a signature strategy of the analytics era -- and, perhaps, eases the issues of managing teams with few or even no pitchers who qualify for multiple starts. (Hello, there, 2019 Angels.)

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